After Sprint 3, the StudyBuddy team has these data:
- Velocities: Sprint 1 = 14, Sprint 2 = 21, Sprint 3 = 19 points. Sprints are 2 weeks. The semester has 5 Sprints left.
- Remaining backlog for the "spring release": Musts = 48 points, Shoulds = 30 points, Coulds = 22 points.
- Open risks: Buddy quality not yet proven (P 0.4, impact 1 Sprint); IT hosting approval pending (P 0.2, impact 1.5 Sprints); Mei has exams in Sprint 5 (P 0.8, impact 0.3 Sprint of capacity).
Produce a release plan for the Product Owner:
- A forecast of how many points the team can deliver in 5 Sprints, as a range (use the lowest, average and highest velocity).
- Adjust the forecast for the risks (expected loss).
- A commitment: which priority groups you commit to, which are "likely", and which are "unlikely" — with reasons.
- Two actions that would increase confidence, and one early warning sign you will watch every Sprint.
- A short paragraph explaining the forecast to the dean, who "needs everything by the end of the semester".